/whenwarends
WhenWarEnds
whenwarends.org is a non-commercial, Ukrainian-built dashboard that answers one question with calm, transparent data: when does this war end? It shows a market-implied probability distribution for the end of the Russia–Ukraine war, a scrubbable timeline of measured indicators, and a short weekly brief — and it never authors its own prediction.
Visit
- Open the live site at whenwarends.org
- Read the source on GitHub
What it does
- Hero curve — a cumulative distribution of the market-implied probability that the war has ended by each date, drawn from live prediction markets
- Three summary cards — the closest market, the liquidity-weighted consensus, and the most optimistic market, read straight off the curve
- The war in data — a scrubbable timeline of measured indicators since 24 February 2022: front line, fighting intensity, economy, energy, and displacement
- Weekly brief — a short, clearly-labelled editorial summary plus related news, auto-published behind code-level integrity guards; the site never issues its own call
How it's built
- Static-first Astro on Cloudflare's free tier — no ads, no accounts, no paid tiers
- Free, open data only — Polymarket and Manifold for war-end probabilities; GDELT, NASA FIRMS, Kiel, World Bank, the central banks of Ukraine and Russia, the ECB, Oryx, DeepState and the U.S. EIA for indicators
- Traceable numbers — every figure links to a free, open, publicly accessible source; estimates are labelled as such
- Cookieless analytics — no cookies, no identifiers, no cross-site or cross-session tracking
Why it exists
People who live with this war — at home and abroad — deserve a sober, honest reference point that is neither doom-scrolling nor false comfort. The advocacy is in choosing to build it; the presentation stays restrained and never sensational.
License
Non-commercial, built in Kharkiv by ITSUA, released under CC BY 4.0 — open data, open source.
